What is Jamaat Up To?

Jamaat has decided to end their policy of political hibernation and started mouthing off their party line about their innocence in our liberation war and how they could not be tried as war criminals since there were no war criminals in Bangladesh. Brazenness and mendacity of this magnitude, of course, did not go unnoticed and soon calls were made from every other part of the political spectrum to try the war criminals of seventy-one, including several prominent Jamaat leaders.

With their announcement, Jamaat has in effect heralded politicking back into Bangladesh’s mainstream discourse. All the issues under debate are intensely ideological in nature. And they are issues to which all of us have visceral reactions; it is quite impossible for most Bangladeshis to remain indifferent when the liberation war is being discussed.

General Moeen U Ahmed is now busy setting up his own political party. We saw, with the aborted launch of Nagorik Shakti, the difficulty of creating a new party in our current political landscape. Moeen is going to take another attempt to achieve the same objective. Tentatively, he will style it Jago Bangladesh, after the entity that has already been launched and funded by him. During his visit to the States, he finalized plans to launch this party by the third week of November. He wants his party to, potentially, have a two-third majority in the next parliament. This is the only way that constitutional amendments can be carried out that will let him and his cronies, who are running this military government, get away with some protecting legal cover.

Jago Bangladesh will probably, in the coming months, try to usurp some of the centre-left space now filled by Awami League. It will make the right noises about the trial of war criminals. It will say that if voted to power, it will uphold the ideology of our liberation war. In the same time, Moeen is hoping to irrevocably damage BNP as a political force and replace BNP with Jamaat as the main political force of the centre-right. If everything goes to plan, Jamaat would be the largest opposition party in Parliament, and someone like Barrister Abdur Rajjak or Ali Ahsan Mohammed Mujahid will take over as Bangladesh’s next Leader of the Opposition. Jamaat could go through the motions of being an actual opposition party, and continue its strategy of strengthening and rehabilitation.

If Jamaat can become the main opposition party in the Ninth Parliament, what do you think its goal will be for the Tenth Parliament?

Why would Moeen want Jamaat as the opposition in Parliament? Well, witness the mindframe of several advisers, who have labelled Jamaat as disciplined and free of corruption. They probably think that Jamaat, with its intense party discipline, has the most in common with their real ideology, and also will be the political outfit easiest to control.

Besides, we have all seen, from the “minus-two” plans, to countless other pieces of gesturing, the almost oedipal fascination with which the current military regime regards General Pervez Musharraf’s rule in Pakistan. When Musharraf formed the first parliament after he came to power, guess which party was immensely strengthened and became the main opposition in parliament? An Islamic party, called Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal, which called for establishing Islamic rule in Pakistan, and seeing that state turned into a complete theocracy. Does that sound familiar to anyone?

It in this context, that the recent attempt to hijack the BNP leadership must be understood. The original rational given for this military coup, back in January 2007, was that one of Bangladesh’s two major political parties was not going to participate in the elections slated to be held in twelve days, which would make it fatally flawed and one-sided. This is also the excuse which the American, Indian, and British diplomatic missions used to support the coup and the subsequent government. Thus, to give the appearance of credibility, the next elections must feature both BNP and AL, or at least parties which can claim to be BNP and AL. Major Hafizuddin, after installing himself as Secretary General, repeatedly stressed the importance of participating in the next general elections. You see, he has been instructed, very firmly, on what his lines are in this current play. So far, he’s sticking to them.

Remember also, that a part of AL has not endorsed their acting President Zillur Rahman’s assertion that AL would not participate in the next polls without Hasina. Expect one of two things: either Mr. Rahman will modify his stance, or AL will also undergo a forced change of leadership.

Once these pieces are in place, it will suddenly be time for elections. Prothom Alo and Daily Star will joyously hail Moeen, the hero of the hour, for bringing democracy back to Bangladesh, just as he promised, and highlight his beneficience and trustworthy nature. The regime will highlight their efficiency and sincerity, underlining the fact that they are holding the elections months before their planned date of December 2008. A feeling of relief will sweep the country due to the lifting of the state of emergency. A rubber-stamp parliament, if elected, will doubtless have no problems making Moeen President for life, to express their deep gratitude to him.   

It’s a nice, neat plan, don’t you think? It factors in everything, except for the popular will of the people of Bangladesh. And it is only our people, the fount of our democracy, that now have the chance to stop this plan from coming into fruition.